🔗 Share this article

Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.